Railway wind disaster prevention prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a railway wind disaster prevention prediction method in the technical fields of railway disaster prevention alarming and monitoring. The method comprises the following steps of: acquiring wind speed and wind direction data of a current moment measuring point; calculating the first-order difference, the second-order difference and the third-order difference of the wind speed and wind direction data of the current moment measuring point; retrieving the wind speed and wind direction data, the first-order difference, the second-order difference and the third-order difference of three continuous moments before the current moment and establishing an identification equation of a wind speed and wind direction model; establishing a quaternion first-order equation set according to the identification equation of the wind speed and wind direction model and acquiring the model parameters of the wind speed and the wind direction through a Gaussian elimination method; updating the model parameters according to an average sliding coefficient; and calculating the wind speed and wind direction data of the next moment according to the updated model parameters. The invention improves the prediction accuracy and the accuracy of a prediction result.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of railway disaster prevention alarm and monitoring, and in particular relates to a railway disaster prevention wind prediction method. Background technique [0002] With the development of domestic railway technology, especially the development of high-speed railways in recent years, the alarm requirements for railway safety and disastrous consequences caused by geological, weather and human factors are getting higher and higher. Strong wind alarm has become an integral part of China's railway disaster prevention system. Because the wind factor in meteorological factors is closely related to the terrain, climate, and ground factors of the place, and the wind speed is a random signal, its occurrence has a great deal of influence. Uncertainty makes it difficult to make accurate predictions. In order to better enable the dispatching department and the engineering department to obtain the wind speed and direct...

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Problems solved by technology

[0018] However, since the measurement of wind speed and wind direction is a real-time and continuous process, the real-time wind speed and wind direction of the wind measurement point must be predicted, and the wind prediction parameters need to be updated in real time during the measurement process, so the mathematical expectation results are used directly. Calculation, unable to meet real-time and continuity requirements

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