Optimization method of real-time correction models in flood forecast system

Abstract

The invention relates to an optimal selecting method of real-time correction models in a flood forecast system, which belongs to the technical field of flood forecast. The optimal selecting method comprises the following steps of: firstly, configuring at least two existing real-time correction models and selecting a precision evaluating indicator for the flood forecast system; extracting a time period just before the forecast time of the flood forecast system as an attempting forecast time period after system initialization; respectively applying the real-time correction models to the attempting forecast time period for attempting real-time correction forecast so as to obtain attempting real-time correction forecast runoffs; respectively counting the precision evaluating indicators of the attempting real-time correction forecast runoffs, and selecting the real-time correction model corresponding to the attempting real-time correction forecast runoff with the optimal precision evaluating indicator as the optimal real-time correction model. The optimal selecting method adopts multiple kinds of the existing real-time correction models for multiple times of attempting real-time correction forecasts so as to select the optimal real-time correction model applicable to floods in the current valley in the flood forecast system, and thus, the precision of the flood forecast system in actual forecasts is increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for optimizing a real-time correction model in a flood forecasting system, belonging to the technical field of flood forecasting. Background technique [0002] In the flood dispatching and power generation dispatching of reservoirs, in order to make fast and accurate analysis and forecast of the ever-changing water regime, a flood forecasting system is generally set up (according to objective hydrological laws and information such as water, rain, and construction conditions to predict future hydrological phenomena predictive system). With the development of modern computer and communication technology, the collection, transmission and processing of water regime information, the calculation and analysis of forecast mathematical model, and the release service of forecast information can be integrated into one, and the real-time forecast technology of control theory is introduced in large quantities In the flood forecast...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Therefore, when the existing real-time flood forecasting system faces multiple floods with different characteristics, the forecasting accuracy of the forecasting process is often unstable, and even some flood forecasting processes are corrected in real time, and the forecasting accuracy decreases instead.

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