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Prognosis prediction model of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients in abiraterone treatment and establishment method and application of prognosis prediction model

A technology for castration resistance and prostate cancer, applied in computer-aided medical procedures, health index calculation, medical informatics, etc., can solve the problem of inability to effectively predict the prognosis model of mCRPC patients

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-20
WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Currently there is no prognostic model that can effectively predict the response to abiraterone therapy in patients with mCRPC

Method used

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  • Prognosis prediction model of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients in abiraterone treatment and establishment method and application of prognosis prediction model
  • Prognosis prediction model of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients in abiraterone treatment and establishment method and application of prognosis prediction model
  • Prognosis prediction model of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients in abiraterone treatment and establishment method and application of prognosis prediction model

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0046] Example 1 Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in first-line abiraterone therapy

[0047] The nomogram for predicting the PSA-free progression time of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in the first-line abiraterone treatment of the present invention, its establishment method comprises the following steps:

[0048] (1) Collected 122 patients who were diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer and progressed to metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from 2014 to 2019. All patients received first-line abiraterone therapy (1000mg / day, combined with prednisone 10mg / day) after the diagnosis of mCRPC. After a median follow-up of 27.9 months, 100 (82.0%) patients eventually developed PSA progression;

[0049] (2) Collect the clinical and pathological data of the patients as follows: age, Gleason score ...

Embodiment 2

[0057] The prognostic model established in embodiment 2 verification

[0058] After the prognostic prediction model of PSA-free progression time in abiraterone treatment for mCRPC patients was established, 37 patients in the validation group were used to validate the model. The verification of the model was completed through C-index index and consistency curve analysis. The specific steps are as follows:

[0059] (1) The C-index index can reflect the prediction accuracy of the model in predicting the time of PSA-free progression or the ability to distinguish the prognosis. C-index was calculated by R software.

[0060] The C-index of the prognosis model for predicting PSA-free progression time of the present invention is 0.767, showing that the model has good prediction accuracy and discrimination.

[0061] (2) The consistency curve is used to reflect the consistency between the predicted probability of PSA progression and the actual proportion of PSA progression in the ver...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of prognosis evaluation of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients, and particularly relates to a prognosis prediction model of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients in abiraterone treatment and an establishment method and application of the prognosis prediction model. For mCRPC patients receiving abiraterone first-line treatment, scoring can be conducted through the column diagram, the prediction probability that PSA progress does not happen to the patients in the sixth month and the twelfth month and the PSA progress time does not exist in the middle position are obtained according to the corresponding positions of the total branch column diagram, and therefore use of clinicians in daily work is more convenient.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of prognosis evaluation for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, and in particular relates to a prognosis prediction model for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer treated with abiraterone and its establishment method and application. Background technique [0002] Abiraterone is one of the standard first-line treatments recommended by domestic and foreign guidelines for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). For different mCRPC patients, the treatment effect of abiraterone is different. Some patients can achieve long-term tumor control under abiraterone treatment, while some patients will experience rapid disease progression during this treatment. [0003] Currently, there is no prognostic model that can effectively predict the efficacy of abiraterone therapy in patients with mCRPC. Contents of the invention [0004] The purpose of t...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/30
Inventor 曾浩沈朋飞王志鹏朱莎赵劲歌聂玲
Owner WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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