Method and system for analyzing uncertain power flow of power grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for analyzing uncertain power flow of a power grid. The method comprises the steps of obtaining the probability description of input random variables such as the wind speed, light intensity and load of a power system, building a model of random factors of the power system, and determining to-be-solved target output variables such as node voltage and linepower flow; obtaining sampling values of the input random variables such as the wind speed, light intensity and load, and obtaining origin moments of all orders of the output variables such as the node voltage and line power flow according to a deterministic evaluation method; and based on a calculation result of the origin moments, solving probability distribution of the target output variablessuch as the node voltage and line power flow by utilizing a maximum entropy probability distribution algorithm. The method can effectively overcome the characteristic of complex calculation process ina traditional point estimation method, makes up the problem of inaccurate fitting of the traditional point estimation and series expansion method, and has certain application value for analyzing theuncertainty state of the power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system analysis, and in particular relates to an uncertain power flow analysis method of a power system. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] With the development of the power system, a large number of new power supply and consumption devices such as renewable energy power generation, electric vehicles, etc. continue to emerge, which aggravates the uncertainty of the power system power flow, making it difficult for operators to accurately grasp the actual operating status of the power grid. In this context, research on methods for analyzing uncertain power flows in power systems has gradually attracted people's attention. [0004] Uncertain power flow refers to a power system analysis method that uses uncertain factors that affect the operating state ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the point estimation combined with the series expansion method in the current uncertain power flow analysis, the present invention provides an improved point estimation and maximum entropy method for analyzing the uncertain power flow, and improves the calculation of the traditional method through improvement measures Efficiency, to overcome the problem of poor fitting effect of probability distribution

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