A Short-Term Load Curve Prediction Method for 110kV Lines in Power Grid

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid operation and maintenance, and more specifically, to a method for predicting short-term load curves of 110kV power grid lines, including the following steps: obtaining 110kV main transformer forecast data in the next 48 hours; traversing the 110kV power grid lines, and judging all power grids Whether the 110kV line has been traversed; search for all 110kV main transformers mounted under the predicted target 110kV line based on the equipment information topology; for all 110kV main transformers mounted under the predicted target 110kV line, analyze the prediction target 110kV line one by one. The proportion of variable load; the load forecast value is multiplied by the proportion of the predicted target 110kV line in each 110kV main transformer load and summed to obtain the power grid 110kV line forecast data; the current day power grid 110kV line forecast curve is generated. The invention can quickly and automatically analyze and obtain the correlation relationship between the 110kV line of the power grid and the load data of the 110kV main transformer, and then fit the associated 110kV main transformer load data to generate a short-term load curve of the 110kV line, with strong timeliness and high accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid operation and maintenance, and more specifically, to a method for predicting short-term load curves of 110kV lines in a power grid. Background technique [0002] The load forecasting of the 110kV line of the power grid is of great significance for improving the management level of the power demand side and serving the power spot market transactions. Traditional load forecasting is mostly carried out for the city's electricity load. Because in the city's short-term load curve forecast, it can be considered that the load composition remains unchanged, and the load curve is strongly correlated with external factors such as temperature, the application of its forecasting method is limited. The short-term load forecasting is to predict the load curve of the equipment in the next 48 hours, and the forecasting accuracy is one point every 15 minutes. [0003] The load of the 110kV line mainly ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The load of the 110kV line mainly depends on the real-time or future load composition. Since the load composition is subject to changes in the operation mode, equipment maintenance, distribution network ring network transfer, etc., it is often in a dynamic change. It is impossible to accurately obtain the load composition in real time. Precisely predict its load curve

At present, it is generally used to manually analyze the changes in the load composition of 110kV lines, and then carry out load forecasting based on the historical data of the load components. Manual work is time-consuming and labor-intensive, and it is difficult to meet the real-time, accurate and efficient requirements of short-term and ultra-short-term load forecasting.

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