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Design flood method based on improved prior probability Bayesian model

A Bayesian model, prior probability technology, applied in design optimization/simulation, computing, instrumentation, etc., can solve problems such as reducing the superiority of Bayesian theory

Active Publication Date: 2019-04-16
XIAN UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Liang Zhongmin [11] It is proposed that if the prior information cannot be reasonably used to obtain a reliable prior distribution, additional uncertainty will be introduced when using the Bayesian method, thereby reducing the superiority of the Bayesian theory

Method used

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  • Design flood method based on improved prior probability Bayesian model
  • Design flood method based on improved prior probability Bayesian model
  • Design flood method based on improved prior probability Bayesian model

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Embodiment

[0089] Taking the Shiquan and Ankang Reservoir dam site flood peak discharge series in the upper reaches of the Han River as the research object, the annual maximum flood peak discharge data of Shiquan Reservoir from 1954 to 2005 and the annual maximum flood peak discharge data of Ankang Reservoir from 1950 to 2013 were collected, as well as the corresponding history of each reservoir The flood peak data are used for calculation.

[0090] The fit of the alternative linetypes. According to the general situation of the study area, four common three-parameter distribution line types were selected for comparison and calculation, namely Pearson III distribution (P-III distribution), generalized extreme value distribution (Gev distribution), and three-parameter Weibull distribution ( Weibull-3 distribution), three-parameter lognormal distribution (LN-3 distribution).

[0091] First of all, it is checked whether the selection of each alternative line type is appropriate and whether ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a design flood method based on an improved prior probability Bayesian model, and the method specifically comprises the steps: selecting a plurality of alternative lines, respectively calculating the comprehensive index value of each alternative line, building a Bayesian model according to the comprehensive index value, and calculating the design value of flood through the Bayesian model. According to the Bayesian model design flood method based on the improved priori probability, the precision of the Bayesian model is improved by improving the priori probability, and then the purpose of reducing the linear selection uncertainty influence is achieved, so that the design result precision is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering design, and relates to a design flood method based on a Bayesian model of improved prior probability. Background technique [0002] Flood frequency analysis is the core link of design flood calculation. Reducing the uncertainty in the calculation process will help improve the accuracy of the results and provide a reliable basis for hydraulic engineering design. In the calculation of flood frequency, the selection of distribution line type is particularly important. In order to reduce the influence of line type selection on the calculation results of flood frequency, scholars at home and abroad have proposed the method of Bayesian model synthesis for calculation. [1-4] . Bayesian model synthesis is based on the Bayesian principle and is a multi-model analysis statistical synthesis method that takes into account the uncertainty of the model itself [5-6] . Sang Yanfang and ot...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 畅建霞高盼星王义民郭爱军赵明哲
Owner XIAN UNIV OF TECH
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