A forecasting method of household electricity consumption based on household electrical appliance energy consumption accounting

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method of household electricity consumption based on household electrical appliance energy consumption accounting, which includes: firstly selecting a sample period of residential electricity consumption, and then classifying the residential electricity consumption categories. And then extracting the residential electricity consumption amount according to theresidential electricity consumption category divided in the step S2; And then calculating a predicted value of the terminal power consumption equipment quantity; predicting the energy consumption of the power consuming equipment of the unit terminal; Finally, according to the predicted value of the terminal power consumption equipment quantity obtained in the preceding step, the predicted value ofthe unit terminal power consumption equipment energy consumption and the predicted value of the number of residential households, calculating the residential power consumption of the target area in the prediction period. The invention decomposes the residential power consumption in the sample period into the power consumption of the terminal equipment, On this basis, the method analyzes the influencing factors of terminal equipment power consumption in the sample period, and constructs a quantitative analysis model to predict the growth trend of various terminal equipment power consumption, and further summarizes and realizes the prediction of residential power consumption, which can explore the deeper power source of residential power consumption growth, and the prediction results are accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a prediction method, in particular to a prediction method of residential electricity consumption based on the energy consumption calculation of residential electrical appliances. Background technique [0002] Residential electricity consumption is an important component of social electricity consumption, and residential power supply guarantee is also the basic requirement for power supply companies. In the field of residential electricity consumption forecasting, energy economics and electricity research scholars mostly use time series analysis methods such as unary linear regression, multiple linear regression, nonlinear regression, ARIMA analysis, etc. to model and predict the overall residential electricity consumption, but cannot explore the A deeper source of power for electricity consumption growth. [0003] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a new method for predicting residential electricity consumption. [0004] T...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the invention application is still unable to explore the deeper source of power for the growth of residential electricity consumption

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