Method for improving the robustness of sales forecasts

A technology for forecasting results and robustness, applied in the field of big data, can solve the problems of poor robustness of sales forecast results, poor correction effect, and lack of general applicability, so as to avoid singularity, reduce volatility, and reduce accidental factors. effect of influence

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-12-18
SICHUAN CHANGHONG ELECTRIC CO LTD
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is: to propose a method for improving the robustness of sales forecast results, and to solve the problems of poor robustness of sales forecast results, lack of universal applicability and poor correction effect in traditional technologies

Method used

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  • Method for improving the robustness of sales forecasts
  • Method for improving the robustness of sales forecasts

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Embodiment

[0073] In this embodiment, the month is used as the time dimension of the sales forecast, and the sales forecast of TV sets is taken as an example for illustration.

[0074] 1. Data preparation:

[0075] Collect historical order data (including time, sales volume, price, etc.), historical macroeconomic data and historical competitive product data

[0076] 2. Determine the predictive model:

[0077] Time series model: state space exponential smoothing model—ETS model;

[0078] Time series and regression analysis mixed model: dynamic regression ARIMA model;

[0079] Select the above two models for sales forecast.

[0080] 3. Hierarchy of historical sales data:

[0081] The historical sales data is stratified according to the size attributes of TVs, and a two-level hierarchical structure is obtained including the total sales of TVs and the sales of 30-50 size segments, 50-70 size segments, and 70-inch and above size segments.

[0082] 4. Data fusion and preprocessing:

[00...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of big data, and discloses a method for improving the robustness of the sales volume prediction result, which solves the problems of poor robustness of the sales volume prediction result in the traditional technology, non-universal applicability and poor correction effect. The method comprises the following steps: a. performing data preparation and selection of asales forecast model; B. stratifying that sales volume time series; C. fusing and preprocessing the data in the hierarchical structure; D. predicting the data value of the relevant factors in the time period for which prediction is required; E. training and testing the selected sales forecasting models and calculating test errors; F. predicting and outputting the sales volume forecast value corresponding to the corresponding time by using the trained sales forecast model; G. integrating the sales volume forecast values output by each model to obtain the integrated forecast values; H. adoptingtime series hierarchy algorithm to modify the ensemble prediction value. The invention is suitable for accurately predicting the sales volume of a product.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of big data, in particular to a method for improving the robustness of sales forecast results. Background technique [0002] Sales forecast refers to the estimation of the sales of all products or specific products within a certain period of time in the future. Sales forecast plays an important role in the production, management and sales of products, but it is not easy to make high-quality sales forecast. Sales forecasting technology mainly uses historical sales data and external influencing factor data, adopts time series analysis method or machine learning method, and establishes a model to predict sales. [0003] The sales forecast method in traditional technology has the following problems: [0004] 1) Due to the single forecast method used, unknown accidental factors will bring great volatility to the sales forecast results, and the robustness of the sales forecast results is poor; [0005] 2) Due to the use ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06F17/17
CPCG06F17/175G06Q30/0201G06Q30/0202
Inventor 邹文君杜科蒲文龙
Owner SICHUAN CHANGHONG ELECTRIC CO LTD
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