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Physical-statistical hybrid two-stage wind power prediction method

A wind power prediction and wind power technology, which is applied in prediction, calculation, electrical components, etc., can solve the problems of high data dependence, complex physical mechanism, and the actual effect cannot meet the accuracy requirements, so as to achieve high prediction accuracy and improve prediction accuracy. , the effect of improving economy and safety

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-16
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Among them, the advantage of the physical prediction method is that the demand for historical data is small, but due to the complex physical mechanism of weather conditions affecting wind power power, the actual effect may not meet the accuracy requirements
The statistical prediction method does not care about the specific physical mechanism, but analyzes the statistical relationship between historical data (including wind power, meteorological data, etc.), so it is highly dependent on data

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[0049] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in the present invention, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described The embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0050] like Figure 1-Figure 7 As shown, a physical-statistical hybrid two-stage wind power forecasting method takes the two sets of wind power forecasting obtained by the physical forecasting method and the statistical forecasting method in the first stage as the input of the second stage, and uses the BP neural network to predict the ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a physical-statistical hybrid two-stage wind power prediction method. Wind power prediction obtained by a physical prediction method and a statistical prediction method is usedas input of a second stage, and through a BP neural network, a wind power sequence on a target day is predicted. The method comprises the following specific steps: a physical prediction neural network model is built and trained; with each day as the target day, wind speed general similarity coefficients of other days relative to the target day are calculated respectively; a statistical predictionneural network model is built and trained; with wind speed and wind direction data of 24 h per day as input, a wind power physical prediction sequence for each day in former 180 days is sorted; withwind power sequences corresponding to former five similar days of each day as input, a wind power statistical prediction sequence for each day in former 180 days is obtained; and a BP neural network prediction model in a second stage is built and trained until a training error is smaller than a given value, and a two-stage prediction model is obtained finally.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power forecasting, in particular to a physical-statistical hybrid two-stage wind power forecasting method. Background technique [0002] With the increasingly prominent energy and environmental issues, wind power, as a new energy power generation technology with great development potential and relatively mature technology, has developed rapidly and extensively in recent years. As of 2016, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in the world reached 486.75GW, of which my country accounted for 35%, and due to terrain and other factors, it showed more characteristics of large-scale and highly concentrated development. At the same time, because the inherent randomness of wind power brings difficulties to wind power forecasting, compared with load forecasting, the accuracy of wind power forecasting is lower. Running presents a challenge. Therefore, research on the prediction method of wind power...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00H02J2203/20
Inventor 杨冬马欢慈文斌邢鲁华麻常辉王亮张冰赵康马琳琳陈博蒋哲周宁李山李文博刘文学
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY
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