Mountain flood disaster danger dynamic early warning method and fine graded monitoring and early warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain flood disaster danger dynamic early warning method. Numerical simulation is performed on the mountain flood along the movement by using a two-dimensional diving waveequation on the basis of the real-time data of a watershed investigation and monitoring system, the mountain flood coverage range and coverage depth are predicted on the DEM grid level, and the extent of damage to the affected body, and the safe escape route and other information are analyzed through superposition of the affected body data and timely released to the people of the watershed. The invention also discloses a mountain flood disaster fine graded monitoring and early warning method. The monitoring information influencing the elements of the mountain flood disaster is omnibearingly acquired and analyzed, the process of whole mountain flood formation, occurrence and evolution is seen as the highly dynamic process to be predicted and monitored, and fine early warning of the mountain flood disaster is gradually completed by four steps of prediction before the mountain flood disaster, early warning of the disaster, sending warning of the disaster and dynamic early warning of thedanger. Compared with the present one-step and one-indicator monitoring and early warning technology, the dynamic characteristics and law of the mountain flood disaster are fully combined by the method so as to be more scientific and higher in disaster reduction practicality.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for early warning of disasters, in particular to a method for finely graded monitoring and early warning of mountain torrents based on evolution process monitoring, and belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering and the technical field of prevention and control of geological disasters. Background technique [0002] Geological disaster monitoring and early warning refers to monitoring the formation conditions, excitation conditions and physical characteristics of potential disaster bodies through certain technical means, and issuing warnings to threatened areas and people in advance before disasters occur or reach dangerous areas. The purpose of flash flood disaster early warning is to issue early warning information when flash floods are about to occur or have not yet reached the dangerous area, so as to gain time for evacuation and reduce casualties. A more ideal flash flood disaster early warning...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Both methods have their drawbacks: for the former, the CCD image information has a large amount of data and has high requirements for data transmission. Generally, it is necessary to lay special communication optical fibers in the field, the construction cost is high, and it is not easy to implement in the field.

However, the image capture sensor based on GPRS technology can only regularly take photos of the area where flash floods occur, and provide images of whether flash floods have occurred. It is difficult to give quantitative early warning information, and it is often difficult to ensure normal operation and obtain information on rainy nights, which is likely to cause disaster leakage. report

In addition, the scale of disasters estimated from images cannot be quantified, and the early warning information provided is rather vague

For the latter, the model based on statistical laws needs a larger sample to ensure the accuracy of the forecast, coupled with the regional differences in the geological and geomorphic conditions of the mountain torrent basin, the rainfall duration-intensity curves in different regions are quite different, and the model is difficult to model. Applied outside the sample area, its promotion and application are subject to greater restrictions

[0004] The existing technology is relatively general in general, and most of them are based on the monitoring of a single parameter to establish a statistical model, which is difficult to reflect the dynamic process of disasters

Another notable defect of these methods is that they cannot provide detailed information on the risk of disasters, making it difficult to take targeted measures in the implementation of evacuation and evacuation, and the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation is not ideal.

Moreover, the existing methods cannot achieve refined early warning based on process monitoring information. They can only give the judgment of whether a disaster has occurred and the early warning information of the occurrence time, and cannot provide detailed and targeted disaster information (such as the space of the disaster, Intensity, process, potential danger zone and its changes, etc.)

On the whole, the early warning information is relatively abstract to the people in the disaster-affected area, and the reliability of the early warning results and the practicality of disaster reduction are relatively weak

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