Mud-rock flow disaster dangerous case dynamic early warning method and refinement classification monitoring early warning method

Abstract

The present invention discloses a mud-rock flow disaster dangerous case dynamic early warning method. On the basis of river basin investigation and monitoring system real-time data, a two-dimensionaldiving wave equation is employed to perform numerical simulation of mud-rock flow motion along a way, a submerging range and a submerging depth of the mud-rock flow is predicted on a DEM grid level, hazard-affected body data is superimposed to analyze information of degree, affected by the hazard, of a hazard-affected body, safe evacuation lines and the like, and the information is timely published to the population in the basin. The present invention further discloses a mud-rock flow disaster dangerous case dynamic early warning method. Monitoring information influencing mud-rock flow disaster factors is comprehensively obtained and analyzed to allow formation, generation and evolution processes of the whole mud-rock flow as a highly dynamic process to perform prediction and monitoring and perform fine early warning of the mud-rock flow disaster through four steps consisting of pre-disaster prediction, disaster-coming early warning, disaster generation early warning and dangerous casedynamic early warning. Compared to a current one-step and one-index monitoring early warning technology, the method provided by the invention fully combines dynamics features and rules of the mud-rock flow disaster, and is more scientific and higher disaster reduction practicality.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a disaster early warning method, in particular to a debris flow fine-grained hierarchical monitoring and early warning method based on evolution process monitoring, and belongs to the technical field of water conservancy engineering and the technical field of geological disaster prevention and control. Background technique [0002] Geological disaster monitoring and early warning refers to monitoring the formation conditions, excitation conditions and physical characteristics of potential disaster bodies through certain technical means, and issuing warnings to threatened areas and people in advance before disasters occur or reach dangerous areas. The purpose of early warning of debris flow disasters is to issue early warning information when a debris flow is about to occur or has already occurred but has not yet reached the dangerous area, so as to gain time for evacuation and evacuation, and reduce casualties. A more ideal ear...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Both methods have their drawbacks: for the former, the CCD image information has a large amount of data and has high requirements for data transmission. Generally, it is necessary to lay special communication optical fibers in the field, the construction cost is high, and it is not easy to implement in the field.

However, the image capture sensor based on GPRS technology can only regularly take pictures of the area where the debris flow occurs, and provide images of whether the debris flow has occurred. report

In addition, the scale of disasters estimated from images cannot be quantified, and the early warning information provided is rather vague

For the latter, the model based on statistical laws needs a large sample to ensure the accuracy of the forecast. In addition, the regional differences in the geological and geomorphic conditions of the debris flow basin, the rainfall duration-intensity curves in different regions are quite different, and the model is difficult to model. Applied outside the sample area, its promotion and application are subject to greater restrictions

[0004] The existing technology is relatively general in general, and most of them are based on the monitoring of a single parameter to establish a statistical model, which is difficult to reflect the dynamic process of disasters

Another notable defect of these methods is that they cannot provide detailed information on the risk of disasters, making it difficult to take targeted measures in the implementation of evacuation and evacuation, and the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation is not ideal.

Moreover, the existing methods cannot achieve refined early warning based on process monitoring information. They can only give the judgment of whether a disaster has occurred and the early warning information of the occurrence time, and cannot provide detailed and targeted disaster information (such as the space of the disaster, Intensity, process, potential danger zone and its changes, etc.)

On the whole, the early warning information is relatively abstract to the people in the disaster-affected area, and the reliability of the early warning results and the practicality of disaster reduction are relatively weak

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