A regional meteorological drought grade prediction method based on coupled multi-source data

Abstract

The present invention discloses a regional meteorological drought level prediction method coupled with multi-source data. The method is characterized in that: by space downscaling of the remote sensing precipitation data of the gridded satellite, a high-resolution regional precipitation space database is constructed, the drought levels are divided by using a standardized drought index, and based on the non-stationary Markov chain model, a meteorological drought level prediction model with time-varying transition probability is constructed. According to the method disclosed by the present invention, multi-source remote sensing information and basic underlying surface features are used to capture the spatial variability of regional precipitation, the lack of precipitation observed in traditional sites is made up for, the external coercion and precursor signals of the evolution of drought and flood of large-scale meteorological factors that can reflect the characteristics of atmospheric circulation are made full use of, and the mechanism of formation and development of drought and flood is taken into account to a certain extent, so that the dynamic evolution characteristics of meteorological and hydrological systems are more in line with, highly scientific and practicability are ensured, and a foundation can be laid for the establishment of a drought and flood warning system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster forecasting and early warning, and in particular relates to a regional meteorological drought level forecasting method coupled with multi-source data. Background technique [0002] Drought is a natural phenomenon of continuous water shortage, which has the characteristics of high frequency, long duration and wide spread. my country is located in the Asian monsoon climate zone, and the spatial and annual distribution of precipitation is seriously uneven, and the interannual variation of the monsoon path and intensity is very large. In addition, the uneven water and heat caused by factors such as terrain within the territory make our country frequent droughts. One of the most drought-stricken countries in the world. On the basis of summarizing various definitions of drought, the American Meteorological Society divides drought into four types, namely, meteorological drought, hydrological drought, ag...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, limited by the current technical level, remote sensing monitoring of drought still has shortcomings such as low spatial resolution.

[0005] Regional droughts and floods are usually caused by temporary anomalies in the local atmospheric moisture budget, but due to the many influencing factors and complex interactions, and the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the disaster mechanism, it is still difficult to achieve accurate assessment and forecast of the disaster situation

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