Medium and long term runoff forecasting method based on early stage meteorological factors and data mining technology

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long term runoff forecasting method based on early stage meteorological factors and a data mining technology. The method comprises the steps of 1, determining various early stage primary election forecasting factors which influence medium and long term runoff, calculating correlation coefficients between all categories of primary election forecasting factors and a history forecasting object sequence, and extracting the factors with high correlation and high variance contribution as final forecasting factors according to a stepwise regression method; 2, establishing various forecasting models based on the data mining technology, taking a history final forecasting factor sequence and the forecasting object sequence as input and output of the different forecasting models and training the forecasting models; and 3, carrying out runoff forecasting according to the various forecasting models and comprehensively integrating a multi-model forecasting result through utilization of an optimal combination weighting theory. The method provided by the invention can be widely applied to water resource forecasting of which forecasting period is measure of ten days, a month, a season, a year and multiple years.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a mid- and long-term runoff forecasting method based on data mining technology coupled with previous meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] Medium and long-term runoff forecasting is an important basis for the design, construction, and operation management of water conservancy and hydropower projects. It is a basic key technology for realizing the scientific allocation of water resources and improving the efficiency of water resource utilization. It has important supporting significance for the scheduling management and optimal allocation of water resources. . Since the long-term hydrological elements are comprehensively affected and restricted by many factors such as climate, underlying surface, and human activities, their changes are intricate and have great uncertainty and instability in time and space. Therefore, for a specific The runoff sequ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of medium and long-term runoff forecasting method based on previous meteorological factors and data mining technology, effectively solve the problem of uncertainty and instability of forecasting factors and forecasting models question

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