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Improved method of fault tree analysis method for safety assessment in electrical power system

A safety evaluation and power system technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of not considering the excessive state of various events, difficult quantitative analysis, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-01-14
NANJING ZHONGDIAN XUEHUI ELECTRICAL SAFETY EVALUATION
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0018] The key technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the existing fault tree analysis method is difficult to carry out quantitative analysis and the state of various events only has two states of occurrence and non-occurrence without considering the problem of the transitional state of various events

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  • Improved method of fault tree analysis method for safety assessment in electrical power system

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Embodiment

[0043] Using the fault tree analysis method to analyze the "corrosion and erosion" cause event in the explosion accident of the reaction vessel as an example, the application is as follows: figure 1 shown.

[0044] Through analysis and investigation, the main reasons for the explosion accident of the reaction vessel mainly include the abnormal rise of the reaction pressure, the pressure exceeding the capacity of the reaction vessel and the failure of the control system. The two reasons of corrosion and erosion are the main reasons for determining that the pressure exceeds the capacity of the reaction vessel.

[0045] Therefore, it is determined that the explosion of the reaction vessel is the top event T, and the abnormal increase of the reaction pressure is the non-basic event B 1 , the pressure exceeds the bearing capacity of the reaction vessel is a non-basic event B 2 , the control system failure is a non-basic event B 3 , the design strength of the reaction vessel wall...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an improved method of a fault tree analysis method for safety assessment in an electrical power system. The improved method comprises the following steps: 1) in accordance with the fault tree analysis method, firstly establishing a top event, and then analyzing each reason event layer by layer, including an elementary event and a non-elementary event, and establishing a fault tree on the basis; 2) performing the membership value assessment on all elementary events and performing the value assessment on the characteristic value of the top event through research, statistics and analysis; 3) giving the membership of each none-elementary event corresponding to each elementary event by utilizing a weighted average method according to the membership assessed value of each elementary event obtained in step 2); 4) giving the membership of the top event by utilizing the weighted average method according to the membership of each non-elementary event obtained in step 3); 5) comparing the membership of the top event in step 4) with the characteristic value of the top event in step 2), and judging whether the top event occurs or not and the likelihood of occurrence of the top event. The fault tree analysis method is improved by applying possibility distribution in fuzzy mathematics, and all possible factors are better taken into account, so that the results are scientific, accurate and comprehensive and specific.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an improvement of a safety evaluation method, in particular to a method for improving the fault tree analysis method by setting the membership degree of each basic event, calculating the membership degree of each non-basic event, and then obtaining the membership degree of the top event. Background technique [0002] In the past 20 years, tens of thousands of large and small safety accidents have occurred in our country every year. Each accident has seriously threatened the lives and property safety of the people and affected the stability and development of society. There is a serious shortage of safety management capabilities, so safety management must be strengthened, and safety evaluation is the basis of safety management. Safety evaluation is the whole process of evaluating the degree of risk and determining whether it is within the controllable range. Through prior analysis and evaluation, risk control measures are formul...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 任世军鹿宇峰张宏兵卜全民时明亮李胜东王文军付昊明
Owner NANJING ZHONGDIAN XUEHUI ELECTRICAL SAFETY EVALUATION
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