Ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power plant generated power

Abstract

The invention discloses an ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power plant generated power. The method includes the steps of A, acquiring the actually-measured power data and short-term forecasting power data of a wind power plant; B, preprocessing the acquired data; C, using a wind power plant generated power ultra-short-term forecasting model based on forecasting time duration to obtain wind power plant ultra-short-term forecasting power according to the preprocessed actually-measured power data and short-term forecasting power data; D, determining the optimal forecasting time duration of the wind power plant generated power ultra-short-term forecasting model according to the wind power plant ultra-short-term forecasting power; E, by the wind power plant generated power ultra-short-term forecasting model, performing wind power plant ultra-short-term power forecasting. By the method, the real-time scheduling plan of a power grid is optimized, coordination of conventional-energy and wind power generation is comprehensively arranged, spinning reserve capacity of a power system is reduced, operation cost is lowered, and good application prospect is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power forecasting, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term forecasting method for wind power generation power. Background technique [0002] Under the pressure of the increasing shortage of global fossil energy and the deteriorating environmental pollution, rational development of renewable energy and improvement of energy utilization are the key to solving the increasingly prominent energy demand growth, energy shortage, and energy utilization in the process of rapid economic and social development in our country. The inevitable choice of contradiction between environmental protection and environmental protection. As a renewable green and clean energy, wind energy is gradually favored by various countries, and wind power generation has developed rapidly. However, due to the intermittent, fluctuating and periodic characteristics of wind power generation, the integration of wind power genera...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the existing ultra-short-term prediction of wind farm power generation. Once the input data source is temporarily interrupted, the prediction at this moment will fail and affect the accuracy of wind farm power generation ultra-short-term prediction.

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