Method for comprehensively predicting generation capacity of multi-radial flow type small hydropower station group area

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for comprehensively predicting the generation capacity of a multi-radial flow type small hydropower station group area, and belongs to the technical field of power. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining a linear multiple regression equation of the generation capacity of the multi-radial flow type small hydropower station group area and the mutual factors which can influence the generation capacity by using a partial least square model, meanwhile modeling the relevant factor sequences by using an improved gray prediction model to obtain a relevant factor prediction value, subsequently substituting the obtained relevant factor prediction value into the linear multiple regression equation obtained from the partial least square model, so as to obtain a prediction value of the generation capacity of the multi-radial flow type small hydropower station group area, and finally obtaining relative errors according to the prediction value of the generation capacity. The method is high in prediction precision and remarkable in prediction effect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for comprehensively predicting power generation in multi-runoff small hydropower groups, and belongs to the technical field of electric power. Background technique [0002] In the electricity market environment, local small power plants of considerable scale that participate in the operation of the electricity market are generally required to participate in load forecasting and peak-shaving power generation plans according to the annual and monthly grid-connected power generation plans issued by the planning department of the power company. Among them, the monthly forecast is an important task of the power planning department and the power marketing department, and the prediction accuracy is directly related to the economic operation of the power market. However, most of the local small power plants are small hydropower plants. Since there is no natural storage capacity, most of them are run-of-the-river small hydropow...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention provides a method for comprehensive prediction of power generation in multi-runoff small hydropower group areas, which is used to solve the problem that it is difficult to find the statistical laws of things under a small sample size, and it is difficult to accurately describe the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable when the influencing factors are multi-collinear. Insufficiencies such as the relationship between small hydropower plants and run-of-the-river small hydropower plants, which lead to low prediction accuracy of power generation in areas with many small hydropower plants

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