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City-wide infectious disease simulation method and device

An infectious disease, city-level technology, applied in the field of infectious disease simulation, can solve the problem of no infectious disease simulation

Inactive Publication Date: 2012-09-19
INST OF REMOTE SENSING & DIGITAL EARTH CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

None of these methods are specific to the characteristics of the urban scale to simulate the spread of infectious diseases

Method used

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  • City-wide infectious disease simulation method and device
  • City-wide infectious disease simulation method and device
  • City-wide infectious disease simulation method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0020] figure 1 is a flow chart for conducting city-level infectious disease simulations. As can be seen from the figure, the method for city-level infectious disease simulation includes the following five steps:

[0021] 1) Carry out urban division and crowd classification;

[0022] 2) Establish 4p ordinary differential equations describing the dynamic process of disease transmission in p regions;

[0023] 3) discretizing the equation system to obtain the difference equation system;

[0024] 4) Considering the connections of other cities, transform the discretized difference equations into open equations;

[0025] 5) Solve the parameters of the equation system, and perform visual expression of the infected population according to the method of using the dot density map and the stacked bar graph.

[0026] The process of conducting city-level infectious disease simulation is described in detail as follows:

[0027] 1) Carry out urban division and crowd classification: Assu...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a city-wide infectious disease simulation method and a city-wide infectious disease simulation device. The method includes the steps of: 1) partitioning the city and classifying the people; 2) building a 4p ordinary simultaneous differential equation set which describes the dynamic process of the transmission of the disease in p (number) areas; 3) discretizing the equation set to obtain a difference equation set; 4) converting the discretized difference equation set into an open equation set by taking the connections of other cities into consideration; and 5) resolving the parameters of the equation set and visually expressing the infected people in the manner of dot density and piled bar graph. According to the epidemiological characteristics of the infectious disease and based on the data of interregional population flow across the city, the city-wide infectious disease simulation method and the city-wide infectious disease simulation device can predict and simulate the dynamic contagion process of the disease spatially in a period of time in the future, and the spatial propagation process of a typical infectious disease can be analyzed on a map in a visual way. The city-wide infectious disease simulation method and the city-wide infectious disease simulation device provide a decision support to infectious disease propagation prevention and control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method and a device for simulating an infectious disease, in particular to a method and a device for simulating a city-level infectious disease. Background technique [0002] Infectious diseases are caused by pathogens (bacteria, viruses, etc.) and can be transmitted between humans, animals and animals, or between humans and animals. It is a general term for various diseases. The outbreak and prevalence of many infectious diseases, especially some severe infectious diseases, will cause huge casualties and economic losses. Some typical examples of epidemics include: the Black Death (plague) that was prevalent in Asia, Europe and northern Africa in the 14th century, the Spanish flu in 1918, SARS in 2002, and the highly pathogenic virus that repeatedly broke out in Asia in 2003 Avian Influenza. Infectious disease modeling has always been very important in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. By establishing an i...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCY02A90/10
Inventor 曹春香徐敏钟少波
Owner INST OF REMOTE SENSING & DIGITAL EARTH CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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