Debris flow probability measuring and calculating method and debris flow multi-factor cooperative monitoring and early warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses a debris flow probability measuring and calculating method and a debris flow multi-element cooperative monitoring and early warning method. The invention provides a drainage basin debris flow occurrence collaborative probability measuring and calculating method, and aims to overcome the defect that prediction values of various monitoring data of an existing multi-element debris flow occurrence prediction scheme are not fused and utilized. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, respectively measuring and calculating corresponding relations Rr and Rn between a rainfall index and a section mud level index and debris flow occurrence probabilities, then calculating debris flow occurrence probabilities pr and pn under different conditions, and finally determining a drainage basin debris flow occurrence cooperation probability pob according to a multi-element cooperation rule. The method optimization comprises the step of respectively selecting the early-stage rainfall and the debris flow depth as specific water and soil indexes to construct a strict water and soil coupling mechanism type debris flow occurrence prediction technology. The invention further provides a debris flow monitoring and early warning method and various application schemes. According to the invention, debris flow and environment multi-element monitoring values are fused and reflected in debris flow occurrence evaluation, and real debris flow multi-element cooperative monitoring and early warning are realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a monitoring and early warning technology for geological disasters, in particular to a monitoring and early warning technology for debris flow disasters in river basins based on multi-element indicators, and belongs to the technical fields of debris flow disaster monitoring and mountain disaster prevention and control. Background technique [0002] Based on the common understanding of the complex causes of debris flow, the field of debris flow disaster monitoring technology has gradually established monitoring solutions for debris flow and various environmental elements, including rainfall monitoring, mud level monitoring, infrasound monitoring, ground acoustic monitoring, vibration monitoring, and image monitoring. , Earthquake signals, etc. On the basis of such element monitoring technology, the collected data can be calculated and processed with the help of the early warning model, and the possibility of debris flow can be p...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] It can be seen from the above three aspects of the existing technology that the defect of the existing technology is that although the multi-factor monitoring system has been built and the multi-factor monitoring data has been collected, the professional principles of the early warning model established based on each factor are inconsistent. The prediction of debris flow did not incorporate the use of various monitoring data into a consistent analysis framework based on the same understanding of the debris flow process, and did not really carry out fusion analysis of the collected multi-element monitoring data to build a true sense of the word. Multi-element collaborative monitoring and early warning scheme for river basin debris flow

Due to differences in the technical maturity of various early warning models, or to eliminate conflicts in the early warning results of different elements, the existing technology always regards the rainfall index as the most important or even the only index for the estimation of the probability of debris flow occurrence, and the monitoring data of various elements The essence of the entire debris flow prediction scheme is "doing its own thing" and "doing its own thing", which makes the debris flow prediction scheme based on multi-element monitoring "not worthy of its name"

The idea that "debris flows are caused by complex causes" is not really reflected in these monitoring and early warning programs, let alone put into practice to guide the practice of debris flow disaster prevention

The original intention of improving the accuracy of prediction results based on multi-factor monitoring data has not been realized

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