Method and system for predicting pollution discharge of rain-fed agricultural ground source

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a system for predicting the source pollution discharge of a rain-fed agricultural land. The method comprises the following steps: collecting historical runoff production related data at a target monitoring point of the rain-fed agricultural land; determining a runoff production related prediction value of each month in a future preset time period; and determining a predicted value of the total amount of runoff nitrogen and phosphorus of the rain-fed agricultural land, and taking the predicted value of the total amount of runoff nitrogen andphosphorus as the pollution discharge amount of the rain-fed agricultural land. According to the pollution discharge prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, on the basis of farmland non-point source pollution generation driving factors and characteristics, a month surface runoff and underground leaching discharge prediction model and a runoff nitrogen and phosphorus concentration prediction model are respectively established for water discharge and runoff nitrogen and phosphorus concentration; the agricultural land field scale non-point source pollution discharge amountinfluenced by rainfall is scientifically predicted, the problem that the agricultural land field scale non-point source pollution discharge amount only influenced by rainfall cannot be predicted is solved, and technical support is provided for agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of agricultural irrigation, in particular to a method and system for predicting the emission of rain-fed agricultural ground source pollution. Background technique [0002] Rain-fed agricultural land refers to agricultural production land that relies on natural precipitation as a water source without artificial irrigation. With the improvement of my country's agricultural intensification and scale, agricultural production is increasingly dependent on chemical fertilizers. In order to pursue relatively high economic benefits, the majority of farmers use excessive chemical fertilizers. After chemical fertilizers exceed a certain range, farmland surplus Nitrogen and phosphorus easily enter the environment and cause non-point source pollution. China is the world's largest producer and user of chemical fertilizers. It feeds 22% of the population with 9% of arable land and consumes 35% of chemical fertilizers. The...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The embodiment of the present invention provides a rain-fed agricultural ground source pollution discharge prediction method and system, which is used to solve the vacancy of the field-scale source pollution prediction model driven by rainfall in the prior art, so as to improve the accuracy of predicting the ground source pollution discharge precision and efficiency

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