Random variable analysis method for regional comprehensive energy system based on coupled markov model

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing random variables in a regional comprehensive energy system based on a coupled Markov model, including: determining and analyzing random variables in the comprehensive energy system; modeling photovoltaic power generation equipment; modeling wind power generating equipment; building multiple loads model; conduct single-Markov model modeling analysis on each random variable in the integrated energy system; based on the single-Markov model, comprehensively analyze the random changes in the integrated energy system, and construct multiple random variables by analyzing multivariate load data Coupled Markov model: Based on the coupled Markov model to analyze the integrated energy system, calculate the steady-state distribution of the coupled Markov model, calculate the expectation and variance of the integrated energy system, and adjust the multiple loads and energy storage equipment. The invention can realize the coordinated control of the source, the load and the storage of the multi-energy system, and guarantee the safe and stable operation of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field, in particular to a random variable analysis method for regional comprehensive energy systems based on coupled Markov models. Background technique [0002] With the introduction of the low-carbon economy and ubiquitous power Internet of Things concept, various energy sources should be rationally and complementaryly utilized, and by increasing renewable energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy, a "regional comprehensive" with multiple output functions and transportation forms will be formed. The integrated energy system can effectively integrate and utilize various resources, improve the energy efficiency of the system, and solve problems such as new energy consumption at the same time, so the integrated energy system has been extensively studied. [0003] At present, most of the research on the integrated energy system is focused on optimization, and the operation mode of the integrated energy sys...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the research on the integrated energy system is focused on optimization, and the operation mode of the integrated energy system is mainly optimized from the aspects of economy and environmental protection. However, the integrated energy system is a highly coupled complex system. In the actual operation process, renewable The randomness and volatility of energy will inevitably pose great challenges to the operation of multi-energy systems. In order to improve the energy efficiency of the system and realize the coordinated operation among sources, grids, loads, and storages, renewable energy plays an important role in the integrated energy system. High proportion, with the intervention of high proportion renewable energy, the randomness of energy supply side and load side has brought huge challenges to the stable operation of the system

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