Regional integrated energy system random variable analysis method based on coupling Markov model

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional integrated energy system random variable analysis method based on a coupling Markov model. The method comprises the steps of: determining and analyzing random variables in an integrated energy system; modeling photovoltaic power generation equipment; modeling wind power generation equipment; performing multi-element load modeling; carrying out modeling analysis of a single Markov model on each random variable in the integrated energy system; based on a single Markov model, comprehensively analyzing the random change condition of the comprehensive energy system, and constructing a coupling Markov model of a plurality of random variables by analyzing multivariate load data; analyzing the comprehensive energy system based on the coupling Markov model, obtaining steady-state distribution of the coupling Markov model through calculation, obtaining expectation and variance of the comprehensive energy system through calculation, and adjusting multi-element loads and energy storage equipment. Source, load and storage coordination control of the multi-energy system can be achieved, and safe and stable operation of the system is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field, in particular to a random variable analysis method for regional comprehensive energy systems based on coupled Markov models. Background technique [0002] With the introduction of the low-carbon economy and ubiquitous power Internet of Things concept, various energy sources should be rationally and complementaryly utilized, and by increasing renewable energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy, a "regional comprehensive" with multiple output functions and transportation forms will be formed. The integrated energy system can effectively integrate and utilize various resources, improve the energy efficiency of the system, and solve problems such as new energy consumption at the same time, so the integrated energy system has been extensively studied. [0003] At present, most of the research on the integrated energy system is focused on optimization, and the operation mode of the integrated energy sys...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the research on the integrated energy system is focused on optimization, and the operation mode of the integrated energy system is mainly optimized from the aspects of economy and environmental protection. However, the integrated energy system is a highly coupled complex system. In the actual operation process, renewable The randomness and volatility of energy will inevitably pose great challenges to the operation of multi-energy systems. In order to improve the energy efficiency of the system and realize the coordinated operation among sources, grids, loads, and storages, renewable energy plays an important role in the integrated energy system. High proportion, with the intervention of high proportion renewable energy, the randomness of energy supply side and load side has brought huge challenges to the stable operation of the system

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