Reliability Analysis Method of Complex Polymorphic Satellite System under Dependent Probability Condition

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing the reliability of complex polymorphic satellite systems under the condition of non-independent probability. The method comprises the steps of: 1) constructing a corresponding polymorphic Bayesian network model based on the structural logic relationship of the complex polymorphic satellite system; 2) constructing a node probability table corresponding to all polymorphic nodes in the Bayesian network model, And compress the node probability table through a polymorphic compression algorithm; 3) Convert the Bayesian network model into a structural form with a leaf node and multiple independent parent nodes through an associated node equivalent processing algorithm; 4) The conditional probability distribution of polymorphic nodes in the Bayesian network model under the query node set and evidence set is obtained by polymorphic compression algorithm, intermediate variable construction rules, polymorphic query node joint probability inference algorithm and non-independent polymorphic inference algorithm. The reliability analysis method of the invention can perform reliability modeling and analysis on complex polymorphic satellite systems with associated components.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of polymorphic satellite systems, in particular to a reliability analysis method for complex polymorphic satellite systems under the condition of non-independent probability. Background technique [0002] In satellite system design, the reliability analysis of satellite system is a crucial step. At present, the reliability analysis techniques for satellite systems mainly include Bayesian Network (BN), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Monte Carlo simulation ( Monte Carlo Simulation, MCS) and Universal Generating Function (UGF), etc., and in the existing satellite system design, Bayesian network technology is usually used for reliability analysis. [0003] With the increase of satellite functions and tasks, the components of the satellite system gradually increase. When performing reliability analysis and modeling of complex polymorphic satellite systems based on Bayesian networks,...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, as satellite systems become more complex, satellite systems, subsystems, or components may have multiple states, the number of states may vary, and there may be interrelated components in the satellite system, such as components with common cause failures

Therefore, in the reliability modeling and analysis of satellite systems, the traditional two-state assumption is no longer applicable; while the method proposed by Tien and Kiureghian is only applicable to two-state complex systems, and for complex multi-state satellite systems, this method is also Not applicable; in addition, the method proposed by Tong and Tien is only applicable to the case that the state numbers of components, subsystems and systems are the same, but in the actual satellite engineering system, the state numbers of components, subsystems and systems are not necessarily the same, the method also does not apply

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