A Comprehensive Intelligent Prediction Method Based on Microseismic Fractal Prediction of Impact Danger Level

Abstract

A comprehensive intelligent method for predicting shock hazard levels based on microseismic fractals, which is suitable for use in the field of rock burst prediction in the field of mine safety. It includes three parts: microseismic fractal index input, fuzzy intelligent processing analysis and intelligent prediction result output. Calculate the microseismic time, space, and energy fractal indicators, establish the shock hazard level membership matrix, construct the index anomaly index and Gaussian membership function, establish a single index evaluation matrix R, and use the F value scoring method in the confusion matrix to calculate and update the weight matrix of each index in real time ; Calculate the membership probability of each impact hazard level, and determine the final impact hazard level by combining the maximum membership degree principle (MMDP) and the variable fuzzy feature recognition model (VFPR). Its mathematical model is clear, universal and operable, and can realize intelligent probability prediction of different impact risk levels and intelligent identification of comprehensive results. It has good application feasibility and high efficiency of intelligent prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a comprehensive intelligent prediction method, which is especially suitable for the comprehensive intelligent prediction method used in the field of mine safety field shock rock pressure prediction field based on microseismic fractal prediction of shock hazard level. Background technique [0002] Rock burst is a coal-rock dynamic disaster induced by mine earthquakes. It has become one of the most dangerous disasters faced by underground coal mining, and its prediction research has become one of the main components in the field of coal mine safety management. As a powerful and effective tool for monitoring mine earthquakes, microseismic has been widely used in the field of mine safety monitoring. Based on a large number of microseismic monitoring data, the research shows that microseismic events generally aggregate in time, space, and intensity distribution information before rock bursts occur. As an effective analysis method i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In these studies, the current fractal dimension index is limited to describe the information of a single element among the three elements of microseisms, such as time, space and energy, which we call time capacity dimension, space capacity dimension and energy capacity dimension , the indicators are independent of each other, lacking the intersection and integration of the information of each element

At the same time, the quantified indicators only stay at the level of qualitative description in the actual prediction application of the possibility of shock occurrence, such as the abnormal low value of the index, the abnormal sharp drop, etc., which makes the prediction of rock burst difficult and inefficient.

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