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High-speed railway passenger travel time-varying demand prediction method based on equal-intensity distribution

A technology for high-speed railway and demand forecasting, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of low precision, long duration and high cost

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-09-04
CENT SOUTH UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The traditional method of obtaining information on passenger travel needs is mainly through surveys. This survey method has a large workload, long duration, high cost, short lifespan of survey data, difficulty in repeated use, and low accuracy.

Method used

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  • High-speed railway passenger travel time-varying demand prediction method based on equal-intensity distribution
  • High-speed railway passenger travel time-varying demand prediction method based on equal-intensity distribution
  • High-speed railway passenger travel time-varying demand prediction method based on equal-intensity distribution

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Embodiment

[0071] Taking the operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on December 1, 2015 as an example, there were 34 ride plans from Beijing to Shanghai on that day, and any ride plan departure time of cost and traffic See Table 1 below. Record the effective operating period of the O-D [T 0 , T 1 ]=[6:00,20:00]; According to the Beijing Statistical Yearbook and Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, the average monthly income in Beijing and Shanghai in 2015 was 7,086 yuan and 6,504 yuan respectively, based on working 22 days a month and 8 hours a day , the average income of residents in Beijing and Shanghai is converted to 0.67 yuan / min and 0.62 yuan / min respectively, and the average value of the two is taken as the unit time rate for the passenger between the O-D pair to travel in advance or delayed, that is, θ=0.65 yuan / min min.

[0072] Table 1: The relevant basic data table of 34 ride schemes between Beijing and Shanghai O-D pair of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a high-speed railway passenger travel time-varying demand prediction method based on equal-intensity distribution. The method comprises the steps of counting high-speed railwaypassenger travel related data from a railway ticketing system; constructing a train taking scheme subset corresponding to ticket purchase time stage division according to the passenger travel relateddata, and determining a flow suction interval of each train taking scheme in the train taking scheme subset; distributing the passenger flow of each train taking scheme into the flow suction intervalof each train taking scheme according to the idea of equal-intensity passenger flow distribution; and obtaining the passenger travel time-varying demand by superimposing the passenger flow distributed to each flow suction interval. The passenger travel related data required in the invention is low in obtaining difficult and obtaining cost, the predicted result is high in precision, and the predicted result provides necessary basic data support for the operation organization optimization of the high-speed railway.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for forecasting time-varying demand for passenger travel on high-speed railways, and in particular to a passenger travel method in which the passenger flow of each travel plan is allocated to the suction section and superimposed based on the passenger travel plan and passenger flow of the high-speed railway passenger Time-varying demand forecasting methods. Background technique [0002] Passenger travel demand is a basic data for high-speed railway operation and management, and it is also an important basis for organizing passenger train operation. In the traditional compilation method of passenger train operation plan (including train operation plan and train operation diagram), only focus on the total amount of daily travel between each O-D pair. However, the transportation capacity of high-speed railways is much higher than that of ordinary-speed railways. While meeting the total demand for passenger travel...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q50/40
Inventor 史峰魏堂建徐光明胡心磊杨星琪
Owner CENT SOUTH UNIV
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