Large power grid load prediction method based on comprehensive evaluation of analog-meteorological subareas

Abstract

The invention discloses a large power grid load prediction method based on comprehensive evaluation of analog-meteorological subareas. The large power grid load prediction method includes the steps of obtaining a load prediction value and resent historical data of each subarea, dividing the whole network into N meteorological subareas by using synchronous back substitution eliminating technology, calculating average proportional coefficient of moment t in N subareas recently, predicting proportional coefficient of the moment t at the day to be predicted in the N subareas, constructing the comprehensive evaluation index of the moment t, selecting q subareas with higher priority, and predicting the whole network load of the moment t respectively, establishing an optimal comprehensive model for q different prediction values, obtaining the prediction value of the whole network load at the moment t, respectively establishing optimal comprehensive models for T moments in a day to obtain load prediction sequences, providing G load prediction sequences for G prediction schemes for different values q, and reestablishing an optimal comprehensive model for each moment to obtain final prediction result of the whole network load at the day to be predicted. Through the method, the short-period load prediction accuracy of a power system is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the related technical field of electric power system load forecasting, in particular to a large power grid load forecasting method based on the comprehensive evaluation of weather-like partitions, which is used for short-term load forecasting of the electric power system. Background technique [0002] In order to ensure the dynamic balance between power generation power and load power in the power system, it is necessary to make a scientific forecast of the power system load. Load forecasting is an important task of dispatching centers and power grid development planning departments. The results of load forecasting have important guiding value for power grid operation, control, dispatch, planning, construction, etc. It is the basis for scientific development and scientific dispatch of power grids. [0003] Improving the level of load forecasting technology is conducive to planning power consumption management, rationally arrang...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The present invention aims at the problems existing in the regional division of the large power grid by using the administrative region where the geographic location is located when predicting the load of the large power grid based on the comprehensive evaluation of the regional load forecast value, and provides a method based on the comprehensive evaluation of the weather-like zoning Large power grid load forecasting method to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in power systems

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