Short-term load predicating method suitable for typhoon weather

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term predicating method suitable for typhoon weather. The short-term predicating method comprises the following steps: obtaining base similar day sample data and meteorological data with relatively great short-term load interferences, calculating meteorological correlation according to the meteorological data, obtaining optimal similar day according to the meteorological correlation, correcting the load of the optimal similar day according to the day type difference and the annual type difference; obtaining load for predicating a typhoon day according to the corrected load of the optimal similar day. The short-term load predicating method can be used for coping with load volatility under the typhoon weather, selecting the day with meteorological characteristic which is the most similar with to-be-predicated typhoon weather as the optimal similar day based on a grey correlation method, correcting the optimal similar day load according to the day type difference and the annular type difference, thereby greatly improving the load predicating precision under the typhoon weather, guiding a power grid to schedule the load predicating work on the typhoon day, making an ordered power consumption scheme for typhoon damages, and guaranteeing the safe and stable operation of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of load forecasting, and more specifically relates to a short-term load forecasting method suitable for typhoon weather. Background technique [0002] Typhoons are one of the main factors causing serious disasters, and they have brought severe challenges to the power grid. For example, strong typhoons often lead to line failures and equipment damage. Therefore, analyzing the impact of typhoons on power loads and improving the prediction accuracy of power loads during typhoons is of great significance to the safety, economy and power quality of power grid operation. In the existing disclosed technologies, the short-term load forecasting technology under typhoon weather has not been fully considered. In the existing technology, the short-term load forecasting technology under normal weather is mainly studied, but the research on load forecasting under typhoon weather is more challenging. [0003] Chinese Pat...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term load forecasting method suitable for typhoon weather, aiming at solving the problem that only normal weather (relative to typhoon weather) is considered in the existing load forecasting technology and cannot satisfy typhoon conditions. The Problem of Load Forecasting Accuracy under Weather

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