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A method for analysis and evaluation of user safety risk evolution in severe weather

A technology for severe weather and safety risks, applied in the field of assessment, which can solve problems such as inability to consider impact

Active Publication Date: 2017-11-03
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +3
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

The method proposed in this paper can only calculate the blackout risk under short-term conditions under the current state, and cannot consider the influence of failure rate and repair rate uncertainty on the blackout risk

Method used

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  • A method for analysis and evaluation of user safety risk evolution in severe weather
  • A method for analysis and evaluation of user safety risk evolution in severe weather
  • A method for analysis and evaluation of user safety risk evolution in severe weather

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Embodiment

[0074] Taking the example of IEEE-RBTS Bus2 as an example to further illustrate the present invention, Table 1 shows the failure rate and repair rate parameters of lines and transformers in bad weather. Other parameters of the system are the same as those of the IEEE-RBTS Bus2 example, and will not be repeated here.

[0075] Table 1

[0076]

[0077] figure 2 Wiring diagram for IEEE-RBTS Bus2 node 3, image 3 and Figure 4 Respectively, the evolution law chart of the safety risk of power consumption in the initial state of the third node under the normal power consumption condition and the power failure condition in the initial state, figure 2 It is the relationship between the short-term power supply availability probability and time of the third node in bad weather, and the initial state is that the third node is in the normal power supply state. image 3 It is the evolution rule of the blackout risk in the fifth day of the fifth blackout state in the initial state o...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for analyzing and evaluating electricity utilization safety risk evolution of a user in a severe weather. The method comprises the following steps that power distribution network connection relation data and reliability parameters of a power distribution network power device are input; a fuzzy set model of the power distribution network power device is established; a state transition matrix and a Markov chain equation are established and an initial value of the Markov chain equation is given; a time evolution rule of electricity utilization safety risks of the user in the severe weather is obtained. According to the method for analyzing and evaluating electricity utilization safety risk evolution of the user in the severe weather, the fuzzy set model, related to the user, of the device failure rate and the device repair rate in the severe weather is established, the method is applied to the fuzzy Markov process for evaluating time evolution characteristics of the electricity utilization safety risks of the user, the time evolution rule of the electricity utilization safety risks of the user in the severe weather is obtained, and therefore the load point power failure risk is researched in a dynamic aspect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an evaluation method, in particular to a method for analyzing and evaluating the evolution of user safety risks in electricity use under severe weather. Background technique [0002] The distribution network equipment related to the user's electricity safety is mainly exposed to the outdoor environment, and the failure rate of the equipment is particularly affected by environmental factors. The failure rate of the distribution network equipment will increase significantly under severe weather conditions, and the corresponding risk of power grid outage will also increase. . However, grid equipment failures are affected by many factors such as environmental factors and internal reasons of the equipment, and an accurate description method cannot be given at present. Affected by complex weather factors and its own factors, the failure rate and repair rate of power equipment have certain ambiguity. At the same time, under severe w...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06F17/50
CPCY02E60/00
Inventor 祝恩国刘宣钟小强高琛阿辽沙.叶刘岩
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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