Looking for breakthrough ideas for innovation challenges? Try Patsnap Eureka!

Ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on composite data source autoregression model

A photovoltaic power generation, autoregressive model technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of photovoltaic power generation uncertainty, uncontrollable power grid security, stability and economic operation, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-07-16
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
View PDF3 Cites 5 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

With the continuous improvement of the grid-connected scale of new energy, the uncertainty and uncontrollability of photovoltaic power generation have brought many problems to the safe, stable and economical operation of the power grid.

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • Ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on composite data source autoregression model
  • Ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on composite data source autoregression model
  • Ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on composite data source autoregression model

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0049] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments described here are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0050] A super-short-term prediction method for photovoltaic power generation based on composite data derived from regression model, including input data to obtain autoregressive model parameters,

[0051] And input the input data required for photovoltaic power generation prediction into the autoregressive model determined according to the parameters of the above autoregressive model to obtain the prediction result; wherein the input data to obtain the autoregressive model parameters specifically includes step 101, inputting the basic data for model training,

[0052] Step 102, using the residual variance map method to determine the order of the autoregressive model...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention discloses an ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on a composite data source autoregression model. The ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on the composite data source autoregression model comprises the steps that data are input to enable parameters of the autoregression model to be obtained; input data required by photovoltaic generation power prediction are input into the autoregression model which is determined according to the parameters of the autoregression model, so that a prediction result is obtained; model training basic data are input, order determination is conducted on the autoregression model AR(p) according to a residual variogram method, and the parameters of the model AR(p) with the determined order are estimated according to a moment estimation method. Key information is provided for new energy power generation real-time scheduling, a new energy power generation day-ahead plan, a new energy power generation monthly plan, new energy power generation capability evaluation and wind curtailment power estimation by predicting the photovoltaic generation power generated during photovoltaic generation. The ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction accuracy is effectively improved due to the fact a composite data source is introduced, and thus the on-grid energy of new energy resources is effectively increased on the premise that safe, stable and economical operation of a power grid is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of forecasting photovoltaic power generation in the process of new energy power generation, in particular to a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation based on a composite data source regression model. Background technique [0002] Most of the large-scale new energy bases generated after my country's wind power enters the stage of large-scale development are located in the "three north regions" (Northwest, Northeast, and North China). Large-scale new energy bases are generally far away from the load center, and their power needs to be transmitted to load center for consumption. Due to the intermittence, randomness and volatility of wind and light resources, the output of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in large-scale new energy bases will fluctuate in a large range, which will further lead to fluctuations in the charging power of the transmission network, ...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/50
Inventor 汪宁渤路亮何世恩马彦宏赵龙周强马明张健美
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
Who we serve
  • R&D Engineer
  • R&D Manager
  • IP Professional
Why Patsnap Eureka
  • Industry Leading Data Capabilities
  • Powerful AI technology
  • Patent DNA Extraction
Social media
Patsnap Eureka Blog
Learn More
PatSnap group products