Photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on self-learning radial basis function

Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on a self-learning radial basis function. The photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on the self-learning radial basis function comprises the steps that model training is conducted to enable an SVM model to be obtained; data required by photovoltaic generation power prediction are input into the SVM model obtained through training, so that a prediction result is obtained. Key information is provided for new energy power generation real-time scheduling, a new energy power generation plan, new energy power generation capability evaluation and wind curtailment power estimation by predicting the photovoltaic generation power generated during photovoltaic generation. The ultra-short-term prediction accuracy is effectively improved by the adoption of a composite data source, and thus high-accuracy short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of prediction of photovoltaic power generation in the process of new energy power generation, that is, a method for predicting photovoltaic power generation power based on self-learning radial basis kernel function, and specifically relates to a self-learning radial basis kernel function based on a composite data source Short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power generation based on support vector machine. Background technique [0002] Most of the large-scale new energy bases are located in the "Three North Regions" (Northwest, Northeast, and North China). Large-scale new energy bases are generally far away from the load center, and their power needs to be transmitted to the load center for consumption through long-distance and high-voltage transmission. Due to the intermittence, randomness and volatility of wind and light resources, the output of wind power and photovoltaic power generation i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

With the continuous improvement of the grid-connected scale of new energy, the uncertainty and uncontrollability of photovoltaic power generation have brought many problems to the safe, stable and economical operation of the power grid.

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