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Method for predicting daily activity-travel time of commuter

A technology of travel time and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of prediction, data processing application, calculation, etc. It can solve the problems of not performing continuous and discrete time, and not choosing prediction accuracy, so as to achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-09-04
JILIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the problems existing in the prior art that only consider a certain period of activity in a day - travel, a certain type of travel or activity, without continuous and discrete time overall modeling, without selection of higher prediction accuracy The SVR model of the commuter provides a commuter day activity-travel time prediction method

Method used

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  • Method for predicting daily activity-travel time of commuter
  • Method for predicting daily activity-travel time of commuter
  • Method for predicting daily activity-travel time of commuter

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Embodiment Construction

[0064] The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:

[0065] 1. Commuter Day Activity - Basic Concepts in Travel Time Prediction Methods

[0066] refer to figure 1 , defining the basic concepts in commuter-day activity-travel time prediction methods:

[0067] 1. Travel and activities

[0068] Travel refers to the traffic behavior of vehicles and pedestrians moving from the departure point to the destination. The purpose of travel is to go to the destination to participate in a certain activity.

[0069] 2. Work sub-round trip

[0070] A round-trip itinerary refers to connecting a series of ordered trips head to tail in sequence to form a trip chain starting and ending at the same location. A work sub-round trip is a round trip starting and ending at a work unit, which may be referred to as a work sub-round trip for short.

[0071] 3. Halfway stop

[0072] A pause during a trip for the purpose of short-term activities, such ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the daily activity-travel time of a commuter and aims at solving the problems of only consideration of certain period of activity-travel, certain travels or activities and the like in one day in the prior art. The method comprises the following steps of investigating travel data of the commuter; dividing the daily activities and the travels of the commuter into five activity-travel periods in sequence; constructing an integral framework of a model system for predicting the daily activity-traveling time of the commuter; screening an influence variable for the model system; setting selection branches of a departure time selection model and a stop / start time selection model; applying an Ordered Probit model to construct a departure time selection sub-model and a top / start time selection sub-model of the model system; applying a support vector regression model to construct a travel time-consuming prediction sub-model and an activity time-consuming prediction sub-model in the model system; predicting and calculating daily activity-travel time elements of the commuter; and recognizing and removing overlapped time periods to form the final daily activity-traveling time arrangement of the commuter.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method in the field of travel demand forecasting, more precisely, the present invention relates to a method for predicting commuters' full-day activities-travel time. Background technique [0002] Travel time is one of the constituent elements of travel demand, and travel time prediction is an indispensable part of the travel demand forecasting model system, which belongs to an important research topic in the field of transportation planning. Daily activity-travel time prediction refers to the forecasting of all the activities and travel time of the traveler in a day, including the departure time and travel time of each trip, the start time and duration of each activity, and the stops on the way start and duration. Through the prediction of daily activities-travel time, the traveler's arrangements for all activities and travel time throughout the day can be obtained, so as to provide for the formulation of urban road...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 宗芳贾洪飞孙宝凤张慧永谭云龙罗清玉吴文静唐明杨丽丽
Owner JILIN UNIV
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