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County-level road accident forecasting method based on geographic weighting Poisson regression

A traffic accident, geographically weighted technology, applied in the field of traffic safety, can solve problems such as affecting the accuracy of traffic accident prediction, unable to explain the spatial heterogeneity of accident number prediction, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2013-07-24
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: The generalized linear model for forecasting the number of traffic accidents widely used in the past assumes that the relationship between the number of accidents and the predictor variable is constant, and cannot explain the problem of spatial heterogeneity in the number of accidents prediction; in fact, various social factors in spatial regions, geography Factors and human factors affect each other and affect the accuracy of traffic accident prediction

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  • County-level road accident forecasting method based on geographic weighting Poisson regression
  • County-level road accident forecasting method based on geographic weighting Poisson regression
  • County-level road accident forecasting method based on geographic weighting Poisson regression

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment, further illustrate the present invention, it should be understood that following specific embodiment is only for illustrating the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, after having read the present invention, those skilled in the art understand the present invention Modifications in various equivalent forms fall within the scope defined by the appended claims of the present application.

[0033] Such as figure 1 As shown, the county-level traffic accident prediction method based on geographically weighted Poisson regression includes steps:

[0034] The first step is to collect the historical traffic accident frequency data of the counties within the research scope through data survey, and conduct research on four types of data including demographic attributes, socioeconomic attributes, road infrastructure attributes, and traffic volume attributes in each ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a county-level road accident forecasting method based on geographic weighting Poisson regression. Firstly history road accident frequency data of each county in a research scope are collected through data survey; then a model relation between county-level accident frequencies and influencing factors and a geographic position matrix form of influence coefficients of each variable quantity are set, and a geographic weighting function in a parameter estimation process is carried out; and parameter estimation is carried out on a Poisson regression model according to geographic weighting. A problem that existing county-level road accident forecasting does not give consideration to spatial heterogeneity to cause not-high forecasting accuracy is solved, and scientific and reasonable guidance is provided for county-level road accident forecasting and safety prevention and control policy formulating.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of traffic safety, in particular to a county-level traffic accident prediction method based on geographically weighted Poisson regression. Background technique [0002] Road traffic safety is one of the basic issues to promote social harmony and improve people's livelihood, and it is a worldwide problem. Alleviating road traffic safety problems is a long-term, lengthy and arduous task. Road traffic safety is usually intrinsically linked to the economic and social development of a country or region. Judging from the history of some developed countries in the world, they have all experienced a period of high incidence of road traffic accidents, and then entered a period of relatively stable low-level development of accidents. The 1950s and 1960s were a period of "high incidence" of road traffic accident deaths in developed countries; later, in order to curb the deterioration of road traffic, developed countries adjust...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 李志斌刘攀王炜徐铖铖
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV
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