Method of forecasting electric quantity based on association mining of hot events

A forecasting method, a technology for hot events, applied in the power field

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-01-16
SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] A. The data warehouse can only provide summary views based on statistics;

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  • Method of forecasting electric quantity based on association mining of hot events
  • Method of forecasting electric quantity based on association mining of hot events
  • Method of forecasting electric quantity based on association mining of hot events

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Embodiment Construction

[0070] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0071] We believe that although electricity consumption will vary from month to month, based on experience, there should not be excessive fluctuations unless there are unusual circumstances (natural or unnatural major events). Therefore, an abnormal event based on the deviation of the moving average is proposed, and it is believed that when the electricity consumption of this month deviates too far from the k-month moving average, there will be an abnormal event. By detecting this type of event and analyzing its correlation with other events in the same period, it can effectively provide a reasonable explanation for the fluctuation of electricity consumption.

[0072] Formally, it is assumed that the sliding average value E is the average value of electricity consumption in the first five months of the current interval, r is the devia...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method of forecasting electric quantity based on association mining of hot events, which has high practical value, reflects deep marketing rules and accurately forecasts the electric quantity. The method comprises the following steps: step I, analyzing data and building a model; step II, mining the hot events; and step III, mining the association among the events by using an association rule for electric quantity forecasting. The model is a feedforward neural network model, the hot events include space-time frequent events, exceptional events based on average line deviation and exceptional events based on the model, and the association rule refers to close correlation between itemsets occurring on a given training itemset frequently, wherein the 'frequency' is a threshold set artificially for measurement, namely support degree; and the 'close' is an association threshold set artificially for measurement, namely confidence level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power. Background technique [0002] Grid sales means that in the face of ever-changing power markets, power supply companies always focus on meeting the needs of power customers, rationally use sales strategies, and finally provide safe and economical power products and satisfactory services, and achieve profitability. The marketing of the power grid occupies a large proportion in the business of the power grid, and marketing decisions have a very important impact on the business development of the power grid. Thanks to the rapid development of database technology and computer technology, the detailed sales data of the power grid is recorded in detail and stored in the computer database, forming a massive marketing database. However, it is difficult for decision makers to obtain information that can be used as a direct reference for marketing decisions from these historical sales data. Informa...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 印鉴张钢
Owner SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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