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Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor

A subtropical and icing technology, applied in the field of power transmission and distribution, to achieve the effect of reducing losses, responding in advance, and having strong operability

Active Publication Date: 2014-03-12
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +3
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a long-term prediction method for power grid icing based on the subtropical high-voltage factor in view of the backwardness of the current grid icing long-term prediction work. Using this method, the winter grid icing in the next four months can be predicted The method has novel ideas, clear process, high accuracy and strong practicability

Method used

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  • Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor
  • Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor
  • Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor

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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0030] (1). The monthly ridge line parameters, ridge point parameters, area index, and intensity index of the warm high pressure system in the western Pacific subtropical region have been searched through the Internet for 50 years; the local meteorological department has collected the local 50-year average Days of icing. Based on the average number of days covered with ice, use conventional methods to grade the extent of local ice coverage in the next four months;

[0031] (2). Using the historical subtropical high parameters and icing data obtained in step (1) and the graded analysis of the local icing degree in the next four months, use conventional methods to find subtropical high parameters with strong correlation with icing as a predictor of icing. Then calculate according to the following formula:

[0032] R X = n Σ i = ...

Embodiment 2

[0043] Steps (1) to (4) are the same as in Example 1;

[0044] (5). From the probability table of different degrees of icing in different ice-covered characteristic areas obtained in step (4), use conventional methods to select the occurrence probabilities of different degrees of icing under the influence of various predictors, and judge the forecast year based on subtropical high The predictor of the parameter is located in the icing characteristic area, and the icing occurrence probability of the corresponding icing characteristic area is obtained, and the obtained icing occurrence probability of the corresponding icing characteristic area is:

[0045] Occurrence probability of mild icing S j ;

[0046] The above j is the number of predictors;

[0047] (6). Calculate the occurrence probability S of light icing in the corresponding icing characteristic area obtained in step (5) according to the following calculation formula j The total probability of occurrence of :

[00...

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Abstract

The invention introduces a power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on the basis of a subtropical anticyclone factor. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) collecting historical subtropical anticyclone parameters and ice coating data; (2) searching an ice coating forecasting factor and calculating a related coefficient; (3) searching an ice coating characteristic region; (4) carrying out statistics on an occurrence probability table of different degrees of ice coating; (5) acquiring the ice coating occurrence probability of the ice coating characteristic region; and (6) calculating the total occurrence probability of different degrees of ice coating. The method has the advantages that 1, the occurrence probabilities of different degrees of power grid ice coating in next quarter (winter) can be forecast one month in advance; 2, the operability is strong; 3, the forecasting accuracy is high; and 4, the difficult problem for forecasting the power grid ice coating for a long time is solved. According to the forecasting conclusion, a corresponding emergency disposal predetermined plan can be timely made, the advanced response of the power grid ice coating is implemented and the loss caused by the power grid ice coating is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular relates to a long-term ice-covered forecasting method for power grids based on subtropical high-voltage factors. Background technique [0002] Power grid icing is one of the natural disasters that seriously endanger the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Severe icing will lead to a sharp decline in the mechanical and electrical properties of the power grid, causing power grid accidents such as tower collapse, disconnection, wire galloping, and icing flashover. Social stability and people's production and life pose a serious threat. [0003] At present, the focus of research and development of icing prediction for power grids at home and abroad mainly considers the microscopic process of icing growth in power grids under specific meteorological conditions, such as the representative Lenhard (Chinese translation is "Leonhard") model , Goodwin...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
Inventor 陆佳政徐勋建张红先李波方针
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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