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Method and device for predicting telecom traffic

A forecasting method and traffic volume technology, applied in the field of telecommunication networks, to achieve the effect of accurate forecasting accuracy and simple and easy-to-use forecasting scheme

Active Publication Date: 2013-09-04
BEIJING BOCO COMM TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for telecommunication networks with relatively large business changes and significant impacts on holidays, these methods are difficult to obtain high-precision predictions.

Method used

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  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic
  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic
  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

example 1

[0054] Method example 1: Traffic forecast

[0055] In the following, taking the voice service of Province A during the "May 1st" Labor Day in 2009 as an example, the method for forecasting the telecommunication service volume of the present invention and its effect will be described in detail. It includes the following steps:

[0056] Step 1: Select the daily traffic volume generated at the mobile switching center in Province A from April 30 to May 3, 2009 as the prediction granularity.

[0057] Step 2: Select the daily traffic volume generated at the mobile switching center in Province A from April 1, 2009 to April 23, 2009 as the forecast sample, as shown in Table 1:

[0058] Date

Traffic

Date

Traffic

Date

Traffic

April 1

465496.6495

April 9

467208.2000

April 17

486043.2632

[0059] April 2

462500.8755

April 10

473943.7504

April 18

427970.0125

April 3

471012.9628

April 11

427970.0125

April 19

413297.4748

April 4

402057.8877

April 12

413297.4748

April 20

...

example 2

[0089] Method example 2: forecasting the volume of short messages

[0090] To further illustrate the effect of the method embodiment of the present invention, the following takes the forecast of the number of short messages from April 30 to May 3, 2009 in Province A as an example. The calculation steps are the same as the previous examples, and only relevant data are listed here for explanation.

[0091] 1. About historical samples and prediction samples

[0092] The data list of the number of short messages from April 1, 2008 to April 23, 2008 and from April 1, 2009 to April 23, 2009, is shown in Table 8. Unit: million:

[0093] Date

Year 2008

Year 2009

Date

Year 2008

Year 2009

April 1

204.43

239.86

April 13

166.94

231.21

April 2

174.54

228.72

April 14

174.65

230.88

April 3

186.04

232.84

April 15

177.21

225.07

April 4

181.18

228.32

April 16

173.12

224.66

April 5

168.99

220.19

April 17

173.75

226.57

April 6

168.03

218.75

April 18

172.69

222.83

April 7 ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for predicting telecom traffic. The method comprises the following steps: determining the prediction granulation of the telecom traffic; selecting a historical sample and a prediction sample; respectively calculating the growth rates and the initial values of the telecom traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample by using a unary linear regression model; calculating the prediction traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample; reading the actual traffic of the historical sample; and adjusting the second prediction traffic according to the deviation between the traffic of first prediction and the actual traffic to obtain the prediction traffic adjusted by a user. The behavior mode of the user is obtained through analyzing the deviation between the linear prediction value and the actual value in the historical sample, and accordingly, the linear prediction value of future telecom traffic data is adjusted to obtain more accurate telecom network traffic, thereby providing decision support for the user to plan, organize and manage network more accurately.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of telecommunication networks, in particular to a method and device for predicting telecommunication traffic. Background technique [0002] Telecommunications business volume is the amount of telecommunications information that needs to be transmitted, and is the main basis for accounting for various types of network element equipment, production personnel, and organization of production, such as traffic volume, MMS volume, and SMS volume. The telecommunications business is characterized by relatively large changes in business volume, uneven busy and idle, and is significantly affected by holidays. [0003] Telecom business volume forecasting is to obtain the laws and characteristics of telecommunication system traffic changes from relevant historical records, establish a mathematical model that can describe the characteristics of telecommunication traffic changes, and then use this mathematical model to pr...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): H04L12/24
Inventor 章建功潘阳发满毅张海军陈晓峰
Owner BEIJING BOCO COMM TECH
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