Prediction method and system for equivalent forced outage rate of thermoelectric generating set

Abstract

The invention relates to a prediction technique for the equivalent forced outage rate of a thermal power generating unit, which is characterized in that a C-language is adopted to compile computing software used for the prediction of the equivalent forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit; the computing software runs on a server for the computing of the reliability and availability of the thermal power generating unit; the computing software comprises the method as follows: basic data is input or called, an equivalent forced outage repair coefficient which takes out planned outage is computed; the undetermined parameters of a calculation model for the equivalent forced outage repair coefficient are determined; the equivalent forced outage rate without regard to the influence caused by planed repair is computed; a modified coefficient of the planed repair type is determined, and the equivalent forced outage rate is predicted; an evaluation basis value of the equivalent forced outage rate is determined, and the quantitative evaluation of the equivalent forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit is determined. The prediction technique has the advantages that the equivalent forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit can be quantitative-predicted, and the equivalent forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit can be led to be under controlled condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a prediction method and system for the equivalent forced outage rate of a thermal power generating set, which is applied to the quantitative prediction and quantitative evaluation of the equivalent forced outage rate of a thermal power generating set, and belongs to the technical field of thermal power generating sets. Background technique [0002] The equivalent forced outage rate EFOR is an important index to evaluate the reliability and availability of thermal power generating units. A high EFOR indicates poor reliability and low availability of thermal generating units. In the use stage, through the statistical analysis of the operation history data of the thermal power generation unit, the statistical results of the historical data of the equivalent forced outage rate of the thermal power generation unit can be determined. Since 1994, the power industry has held a press conference every year to announce the statistical res...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no suitable method and system available for the quantitative prediction of the equivalent forced outage rate of thermal power generating units

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