Charging load prediction and ordered charging planning strategy for electric vehicles in residential area

Abstract

The invention relates to a residential area electric vehicle charging load prediction and ordered charging planning strategy, in residential area electric vehicle ownership prediction, the long-term electric vehicle ownership in a residential area is predicted according to a Bass model, and the electric vehicle ownership and the maximum ownership upper limit of the residential area in the next few years are obtained; in the prediction of the charging probability of the electric vehicle in the residential area, a mathematical probability model of the charging start SoC, the charging start time and the charging duration is established, and a medium-and-long-term charging load prediction curve of the electric vehicle is obtained; in the planning of ordered charging of the electric vehicles in the residential area, an ordered charging model of the electric vehicles in the residential area is established on the basis of a medium-and-long-term charging load prediction curve of the electric vehicles in the residential area and on the basis of charging time, distribution transformer capacity of a power distribution network area in the residential area and charging electric quantity as constraint conditions; the method has a certain elastic translation capability for the charging load, and can alleviate problems of large initial idle of power distribution network resources, resource waste and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of urban power grid planning, in particular to a charging load prediction and orderly charging planning strategy for electric vehicles in residential areas. Background technique [0002] As a clean means of transportation, electric vehicles have the characteristics of zero pollution and zero emissions, and are an important way to achieve "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality". Currently, electric vehicles have developed rapidly as urban commuting tools. District charging has become one of the main restrictive issues at present, including (1) the existing buildings in the current built-up area are limited by line corridors and power distribution facilities, and are facing difficulties in the transformation of distribution networks or do not have distribution networks. (2) When planning and constructing charging facilities in new residential areas, the construction of supporting power grids is often carried out...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, and provide a charging load prediction and charging system for electric vehicles in residential areas, which has a certain elastic translation ability for charging loads, and can alleviate the problems of large initial idle distribution network resources and waste of resources. Orderly charging planning strategy

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