Grid planning method considering difference of risk tolerance of regional distribution networks

Abstract

The invention discloses a grid planning method considering the difference of the risk tolerance of regional distribution networks. The grid planning method comprises the following steps that aiming atthe problems of large difference of the risk tolerance of the distribution networks in town regions and large load fluctuation of the town regions in a rural power grid reconstruction project, a non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used for expressing the uncertainty of the load; the difference of ability of the distribution networks in withstanding the operational risks caused by the uncertainty of the load in the town regions is taken into account, and a risk tolerance evaluation index system of the regional distribution networks is established by being combined with the characteristics of the distribution networks in the town regions; the combination weighting method based on the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method is adopted to evaluate; and a chance-constrained programming model for circuit upgrading and selection is established, and according to evaluation results of the risk tolerance of the distribution networks in the town regions, the confidence level of chance constraint conditions is selected in a differentiation mode, so as to achieve the coordination of the risk tolerance and investment costs of the regional distribution networks and achieve lean investment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distribution networks, and relates to a grid planning method that considers differences in risk tolerance of regional distribution networks. Background technique [0002] my country's distribution network planning theory is not yet perfect. Affected by various factors, some rural distribution networks still have problems such as weak grid structure, high line load rate, low risk tolerance, and low voltage at the end of the line. Upgrading and transforming the 10kV lines of the rural distribution network is an important measure to solve the above problems. It is of great significance to explore the planning and transformation methods of rural power grids; [0003] The rural distribution network has the characteristics of large random fluctuations in load and large differences in the risk tolerance of distribution networks in townships. At present, most researches are carried out on the model selection and p...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] my country's distribution network planning theory is not yet perfect. Affected by various factors, some rural distribution networks still have problems such as weak grid structure, high line load rate, low risk tolerance, and low voltage at the end of the line. Upgrading and transforming the 10kV lines of the rural distribution network is an important measure to solve the above problems. It is of great significance to explore the planning and transformation methods of rural power grids;

[0003] The rural distribution network has the characteristics of large random fluctuations in load and large differences in the risk tolerance of distribution networks in townships. At present, most researches are carried out on the model selection and path optimization of the line under the condition that the load forecast value is determined. For the regional distribution network in towns and towns with large load fluctuations and uncertainties, the grid planning scheme obtained by this deterministic planning method has poor adaptability and high investment costs; based on probability model, fuzzy theory, multi-scenario The uncertainty programming methods of analysis and interval theory all require strict satisfaction of the inequality constraints of the model, which may increase the investment significantly, and the economics of the planning scheme are not as good as the uncertainty programming method based on the chance constraint theory; but the current chance constraint programming Theoretical planning methods mostly adopt the method of unifying the confidence level of the chance constraints, without taking into account the differences between regional distribution networks, and there are relatively few studies on the application of chance constrained programming theory to line optimization selection;

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