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Heating load prediction method

A heating load and prediction method technology, applied in the field of electrical automation, can solve the problems of low accuracy and poor reliability, and achieve the effects of high accuracy, high reliability and wide application range

Pending Publication Date: 2022-06-28
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing regression method has problems in processing the influencing factors of heating load, which makes the existing regression-based heating load prediction method not high in accuracy and poor in reliability.

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0036] like figure 1 Shown is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention: the heating load prediction method provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0037] S1. Obtain a historical data set affecting heating load; specifically, obtaining a historical meteorological data set affecting heating load;

[0038]S2. Data processing is performed on the historical data set obtained in step S1, thereby obtaining a training data set; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0039] A. Perform outlier determination on the acquired historical data set and replace outliers:

[0040] If the abnormal value is a null value, it is filled by the vertical and horizontal cross method: the average value of the values ​​at the same time in the two days before and after is used to replace the abnormal value; if the value at the same time in the two days before and after is still empty, the same day The average value of the values ​​before and afte...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a heating load prediction method. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a historical data set influencing a heating load and processing the historical data set to obtain a training data set; building a heating load prediction model based on the generalized additive model; training the constructed heating load prediction model by adopting the training data set and obtaining an air temperature coefficient; and calculating a final heating load prediction value according to the air temperature coefficient. According to the heating load prediction method provided by the invention, through innovatively establishing the prediction model and the prediction means, the prediction of the heating load is realized, and the method is high in reliability, high in accuracy and wide in application range.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electrical automation, in particular to a heating load prediction method. Background technique [0002] With the development of economy and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, electric energy has been widely used in people's production and life, bringing endless convenience to people's production and life. Therefore, ensuring the stable and reliable supply of electric energy has become one of the most important tasks of the power system. [0003] Power load forecasting is one of the important tasks of the power system. Through accurate power load forecasting, the power system can accurately formulate dispatch plans and operation plans, thereby ensuring the stable, safe and efficient operation of the power system. [0004] With people's pursuit of comfort, the proportion of heating load in the power system load is increasing. Therefore, the prediction of heating load is particularly impor...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06K9/62H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/067G06Q50/06H02J3/003G06F18/214
Inventor 文明李文英罗姝晨肖振锋涂钊颖钟原
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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