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Medium and long term electricity consumption prediction method and system based on ARMA model

A prediction method and electricity consumption technology, applied in the field of electric power, can solve problems such as life and production interruption, social adverse effects, etc., and achieve the effect of ensuring stable electricity consumption

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-11-24
ZHONGSHAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID
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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, the accuracy of power consumption prediction is directly related to the use of users. If there is a power outage, life and production will be interrupted, causing adverse effects on society.

Method used

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  • Medium and long term electricity consumption prediction method and system based on ARMA model
  • Medium and long term electricity consumption prediction method and system based on ARMA model

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Embodiment 1

[0027] Please refer to figure 1 , figure 1 It is a flow chart of the system.

[0028] A method for predicting medium and long-term electricity consumption based on ARMA model, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

[0029] S1: Obtain electricity consumption data for a predetermined period of time in the area to be predicted;

[0030] S2: Preprocess the acquired power consumption data as the original data sequence to obtain the current data sequence;

[0031] S3: Establish an ARMA model, the ARMA model determines the ARMA model function of the predicted power consumption corresponding to the next time period continuous to the predetermined time period according to the current data sequence, and calculates the following according to the ARMA model function Predicted electricity usage for a time period.

[0032] Wherein the preprocessing includes verifying the original data sequence, if the verification result is that the original data sequence satisfies the...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses a medium and long term electricity consumption prediction method based on an ARMA model. The method comprises: obtaining power consumption data of an area to be predicted in a preset time quantum, taking the obtained power consumption data as an original data sequence for performing preprocessing, and if the original data sequence satisfies a modeling condition, taking the original data sequence as a current data sequence, and if the original data sequence does not satisfy the modeling condition, performing reprocessing; determining a preset time quantum; and finally establishing an ARMA model, determining an ARMA model function of prediction power consumption corresponding to the next time quantum continuous with the preset time quantum according to the current data sequence, and according to the ARMA mode, calculating the prediction power consumption of the next time quantum.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power, and more specifically, to a method and system for predicting medium and long-term electricity consumption based on an ARMA model. Background technique [0002] Power consumption forecasting is the key basis for power grid companies to formulate comprehensive production plans and business plans. Reasonable and accurate forecast conclusions will bring positive effects to the company's business decisions, otherwise it will lead to deviations from the company's business strategies. Therefore, future monthly, Quarterly or annual electricity consumption forecasts are crucial. Moreover, the accuracy of power consumption prediction is directly related to the use of users. If there is a power outage, life and production will be interrupted, causing adverse effects on society. Contents of the invention [0003] The purpose of the present invention is to predict electricity consumption more accurate...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 张春梅苏立李宾许兴雀
Owner ZHONGSHAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID
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